Why is the Rolex Submariner so omnipresent? How did a tool-watch become synonymous with success? It is hard say how exactly but now that we finally got access to Rolex's archives we can see how the production of different references and concept of the dive-watch evolved through the last 70 years. And the story of the Submariner goes as much "Into the Deep" as it goes "Onto the Desk".
September 25, 2024
Submariner - From the Deep to the Desk: Quantifying Rolex's Flagship (1953 to today)
Marcus Siems @siemswatches
Collector, Author, Data Analyst
The 1950s might the founding period of recreational diving in general and Rolex's entry-point to become the synonyme of the tool-watch... but the story of course doesn't end there. I have shown you how Rolex entered the dive-watch scene with a big splash last week yet these pieces were still an absolute niche product.
During the 1950s and 60s watches were still tools - in every sense - and you buy specific tools for their particular purpose. This view started to shift later during the Century and with the numbers provided by Rolex we finally have a quantifiable frame when tools became fashion...
The definition of tool-Submariner - a 1970s Rolex 5512 Submariner. Photo Courtesy of Wind Vintage.
The book by Nicholas Foulkes "Oyster Perpetual Submariner - The Watch that Unlocked the Deep" (Wallpaper, 2024) is already The reference when it comes to Rolex's flagship collection and for a good reason - we finally get access to Rolex's archives ourselves. No more guessing games from catalogues and serial numbers, we now got hard facts about the true output of the dive watch that defined our modern understanding of a (desk) diver.
1) The References
It might get lengthy - and most likely redundant to the book - when I start to review and meticulously describe every single reference launched by Rolex between 1953 and the early 2000s. That period saw the launch of a good two dozen references including all date, no-date, Milsub and Sea-Dweller references. But before we go into the analysis here's the list:
| Reference | Crown Type | Caliber | Year | Production | Specifics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Crown-Guard (38mm) | |||||
| 6204 | Small (100m) | A260 | 1953/54 | 2,881 | Pencil hands |
| 6200 | Big (200m) | A296 | 1954 | 303 | 'King Sub' |
| 6205 | Small (100m) | A260 | 1954 | 810 | 1st Mercedes hands |
| 6536 | Small (100m) | 1030 | 1955-59 | 5,350 | |
| 6538 | Big (200m) | 1030 | 1955-59 | 2,800 | |
| 5508 | Small (100m) | 1520/1530 | 1958-62 | 9,000 | |
| 5510 | Big (200m) | 1520/1530 | 1958-59 | 500 | |
| Submariner No-Date | |||||
| 5512 | Crown Guard (200m) | 1530/1560/1570 | 1959-80 | 17,338 | 1st 'classic' Sub (steel bezel, crown guard, 40mm), COSC |
| 5513 | Crown Guard (200m) | 1520/1530 | 1962-89 | 151,449 | no COSC |
| 5514 | Crown Guard (200m) | 1520/1530 | 1969-80 | 1,618 | Comex, 1st He escape valve |
| 5517 | Crown Guard (200m) | 1520/1530 | 1971-79 | 539 | Milsub |
| 14060 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3000 | 1989-2000 | 93,518 | 1st 5-digit no-date |
| 14060M | Crown Guard (300m) | 3130 | 2001-12 | 130,622 | movement update to 14060 |
| Submariner Date | |||||
| 1680 | Crown Guard (200m) | 1575 | 1969-80 | 111,226 (steel), 5765 (18k) | 1st Date Sub |
| 16800 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3035 | 1979-88 | 81,694 | |
| 16808 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3035 | 1979-88 | 5,988 (18k) | 18k gold version of 16800 |
| 16803 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3035 | 1983-88 | 30,239 (bicolor) | 1st bicolor Sub |
| 16610 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3135 | 1986-2010 | 646,613, 128,835 (LV 'Kermit') | anniversary edition (LV, 'Kermit') in 2003 |
| 16613 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3135 | 1986-2010 | 296,784 (bicolor), 106,815 (LN) | |
| 16618 | Crown Guard (300m) | 3135 | 1989-2010 | 20,568 (18k) | |
| Sea-Dweller | |||||
| 1665 | Crown Guard (610m) | 1575 | 1967-83 | 22,038 | 1st official Sea-Dweller |
| 16660 | Crown Guard (1220m) | 3035 | 1978-89 | 16,854 | 'Triple Six' |
| 16600 | Crown Guard (1220m) | 3135 | 1986-2009 | 176,602 | |
Table 1. Overview of Rolex Submariner & Sea-Dweller references (1953-2010s)*.
In sum, Rolex produced round about 2 million Submariner and Sea-Dweller between 1953 and 2010. Of which are 21,644 from the original 'No Crown-Guard' references during the 1950s, almost 400,000 'No-Date' Subs, about 1.4 million 'Submariner Date', and over 215,000 Sea-Dweller pieces. In other words that's enough to equip the entirety of the US Army with Submariners, twice!
Six examples from the five+ generations of vintage and neo-vintage Rolex Submariner No-Date iterations from 1953-2010. Photos Courtesy of WindVintage.
2) The Production
That's an average of 34,000 Submariner a year... Of course we hereby neglect that the production increased over the years. Rolex's manufacturing process became vertically integrated and the volume increased. Thus, here's the (approximate**) annual production between 1953 to 2010:
Figure 1. Estimated annual Rolex Submariner production** between 1953 and 2010[1]. The data is plotted on a logarithmic scale.
We exactly see that the annual production varies strongly over time. While the annual Submariner production is somewhere between 5,000 to 8,000 during the 1960s it climbs to 15,000 to 30,000 in the 1970s and between 60,000 to 80,000 during the 1990s and 2000s. Interestingly, each new generation - based on design as well as movement and material evolution - tends to lead to an increase in production volume.
Three examples - one from each generation - of the Rolex Submariner Date between 1969-2010. Photos Courtesy of WindVintage.
3) The Importance of the Submariner Line
However, does an uptick in annual production also indicate a growing importance of the Submariner line for the entirety of Rolex's catalogue? To answer this question we will have to compare the Submariner production with the overall production volume of Rolex during that period. We will try to compute this ratio in the following but as Rolex started to use letters with their serials in 1987 and the sheer mass of annually produced pieces from the late 1980s onwards makes it impossible to reliably estimate the annual production post 1990.
Figure 2. Comparing the Rolex Submariner production against the overall production volume from the Genevan brand between 1953 to 1988 and from 2020 to 2024.
And what we can observe does also surprise me! The Submariner is over the first 40+ years of its production a relatively stable part of the catalogue. It's not really increasing or decreasing their share in the overall production volume. The average Submariner to Overall ratio is through these years is at around 1.5% and for most part somewhere between 1% and 2%.
Three examples - one from each generation - of the Rolex Sea-Dweller between 1967-2009. Photos Courtesy of WindVintage.
Yet, as stable as this seems, there must have been a time over the last 10 or 20 years that this ratio increased dramatically[1]. If we only take the Submariner references launched in 2020 into account (refs. 1266xx) we see that Rolex manufactured (and potentially sold) 525,272 of these pieces until now... That's roughly 131,318 Subs per year. Taking the Morgan Stanley reports of the Swiss Watch Industry*** as a baseline for Rolex's overall production (810k in 2020; 1.05mio in 2021; 1.2mio in 2022; 1.24mio in 2023) the Submariner is today at around 12% in overall production share. That means that in 2024 every 8th Rolex made is a Submariner! (And over 16% when further accounting for the DeepSea & Sea-Dweller references)
4) Evolution of the Rolex Submariner
This evolution I'm speaking about is not defined by design but rather by the spirit behind the Submariner, the concept itself... Picture it this way: The 1953/54 Submariner was introduced as the original dive-watch, a professional tool. After the Original design changed during its fourth generation, the concept of the Submariner was reinterpreted for different focus groups during the late 1960s. We see the collection branching out and creating the "extreme tool" in the Sea-Dweller and the first iteration of the "Lifestyle Diver" in the Sub Date...
Different types and concepts of the Submariner for different focus groups that start to emerge in the 1960s. Photos Courtesy of @WatchAnd Tropical Watch.
And this "Lifestyle" branch is what I want to focus on here. In hindsight it is such a natural transition from the dive watch to the desk-diver and the pop-cultural legend the Submariner has become. I put the Submariner Date 1680 down as the first step for the Submariner from scuba gear to boardroom attire... because who'd need a date while snorkeling? You won't be down for that long! Fittingly it is also the very first reference to come not only in stainless steel but also the shiny 18k golden armor.
Rolex heavily expanded on this concept and by the introduction of the 5-digit references in the late 1980s you can find the "Lifestyle" Subs - and only them - in all material combinations from steel over gold to 'Rolesor' (bicolored). It is the Submariner Date that is setting this collection up for its tremendous all around success outside the seven seas.
It is the 5-digit range of production that catapults the Submariner Date into the stratosphere of success. Photo Courtesy of @WatchAnd Tropical Watch.
If we compare the production of Date and No-Date Subs we can further see that during the initial branching in the 70s Rolex produced these references at a ratio of roughly 5:2 (No-Date-to-Date). During the 1980s this reverses already to roundabout 1:2 (No-Date-to-Date ratio), around 1:4 during the 2000s and ultimately to 1:5 today (2020s). During this entire time the Date version was sold at a premium but still in vastly higher numbers.
5) The Conclusion
The Submariner is extremely popular! I guess you knew that already but just how much even surprised me. Rolex seems to have perfected the formula to not just "Unlock the Deep" - as Nicholas Foulkes so eloquently points out in the original resource - but also be present in virtually all meetings at every Fortune 500 company. It is bridging the reality of the big-city life with our dreams and aspirations of daring outdoorsy adventures in air, land and sea.
A watch that still looks like the classic dive-watch but hardly will ever be used for that. Photo Courtesy of @WatchAnd Tropical Watch.
The truth is that at modern prices true professionals can't afford Swiss tool-watches. This concept is inherently dead. However, the "Lifestyle" aspect is what made the difference. And through time we can very well observe how the tides turned on Rolex's Submariner and the entirety of the Rolex catalogue from 1953 to 2024. A transition that came in four waves:
Wave 1. With the late 1960s Rolex introduced the Submariner Date laying the subtle foundation for the "Lifestyle Sub".
Wave 2. Challenging the tool-watch concept by substituting sturdy steel cases with flashy 18k gold during the late 1960s and even bicolored material mash-ups during the late 1970s.
Wave 3. Phasing out No-Date production in favor of more Submariner Date models over time from 2.5 No-Dates for every Sub Date (1970s) to 1 No-date Sub for every 5 Sub Date today!
Wave 4. Increasing the amount of Submariner pieces in relation to the overall production output from below 2% in the 20th Century to around 12% in 2024.
The incarnation of the Lifestyle Sub - The Rolex Submariner 16613 with a so-called Serti dial with diamond and sapphire markers. Photo Courtesy of Gaillard Watches.
Let's face it, the Rolex Submariner is probably this successful today because our everyday life consists more and more of indoor activities. Screens and paperwork play a more important role in our routine than nature... and this might be particularly true for the people who can actually afford a Submariner.
Rolex understood better than any other Swiss watch manufacturer not just how to listen to your customer base but also how to define genres, style, and fashion. The history of the Submariner - when viewed holistically - is thus as much a story "Into the Deep" as it is "Onto the Desk".
* There's some difference in the source ([1]) to established production years particularly for references launched during the late 1980s. This might be due to internal production starting earlier (for example 1986) before the first examples were sold (1989).
** The annual production can at this point only be estimated based on total production per reference and the production years.
*** We have seen with other brands that the overall production output can vary dramatically to internal numbers... For example Nicolas Hayek (CEO Swatch Group) shared that the reported numbers can underestimate certain brands by 2x (unfortunately I don't have a link or direct source available). But even under conditions of Rolex producing 2mio watches annually the Submariner collection would have massively gained importance in the catalogue.
References
[1] Oyster Perpetual Submariner - The Watch that Unlocked the Deep; Nicholas Foulkes, Wallpaper (2024)
[2] Rolex Watches Blog at Bob's Watches; Paul Altieri, Bob's Watches [Link]
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